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A majority of developers (62%) surveyed by the National Bank of Poland expect the level of housing sales to remain similar to that of 2023. This moderate optimism stems from the anticipated positive effects of a new government program supporting the purchase of homes for personal use and the stabilization of investment demand.
According to the report "Information on Housing Prices and the Situation in the Residential and Commercial Real Estate Market in Poland in Q4 2023," the demand-supply imbalance observed at the end of 2023 was primarily due to the decline in the number of initiated investments in 2021 and 2022. As a result, the increase in demand in 2024 faced a limited supply of newly built homes. Nonetheless, 34% of developers believe that housing supply was close to matching demand.
The growth in housing sales in 2023 was driven by improved availability of bank loans, continued high demand for rental properties, and ongoing investments in residential real estate. Developers also point to favorable loan conditions and better housing availability as factors boosting sales performance. On the other hand, high housing prices, limited credit capacity, and the weak financial condition of some households were factors that hampered sales. However, the rapid increase in housing prices, rising inflation, and the lack of alternative savings options encouraged investment in residential real estate. According to the NBP, demand from investment funds and foreign individuals had a negligible impact on sales levels.
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National Bank of Poland: Survey on Developers' Expectations
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